My 2025 NASCAR Predictions

The 67th Daytona 500 airs on Fox, Sunday, February 16th at 1:30 PM, kicking off the NASCAR Cup Series for 2025. Note: this is one hour prior to the advertised start time due to weather concerns.

With the Daytona 500 officially kicking off the 2025 NASCAR season this weekend, now is a better time than ever for me to give my predictions for the year.

To preface my predictions, I should give a little context to my perspective on the racing world. I used to be a Daytona-500-only fan for most of my life; I watched for the wrecks and didn't know a thing about racing. It wasn’t until 2021, when I saw an advertisement that there was going to be a race on dirt – something that was completely unheard of to me at the time – that I jumped full force into the NASCAR world. Perhaps racing was just an excuse for me to drink a beer or two on a Sunday afternoon while in my college dorm, but nevertheless, here I am today. Without going into any further specifics, my very recent and unconventional entry into the sport may lead my opinions to be unlike many others in the NASCAR media world.

Overall Season Outlook

In general, I predict that this year is going to be very similar to that of 2022, with every week seemingly bringing new drivers to the front of the field, with a multitude of winners. There were no rule changes with the car in the off-season, no manufacturer had body changes, and from a technical standpoint, it seems as if everyone can seamlessly build on what they had in Phoenix last year.

Now, one could say that if everything is starting right where it ended in the fall, that the same teams who were winning then will just keep getting better and will outrun anyone else. Other than that just being a boring prediction I don’t want to write about, I think there’s basis to disprove it.

In the entire Next-Gen era, no teams or drivers really have been able to show complete dominance. In the last fourteen races of the previous season, we saw ten different winners. That same stat has been matched by every year of the Next-Gen car, with the most recent time before that being in 2013, the first year of the Gen-6 car. Even when combining the last three years, no one truly stands out. Kyle Larson has the most wins in that time, at 13, but that’s no dominance. He had ten wins in his 2021 championship winning season alone. In other words, NASCAR’s objectives of parody with the Next-Gen have been a complete success, and everything says that it’s going to continue that way.

On top of the parody, with the closure of Stewart-Haas and other team alliances having changed in the off-season, the information share from around the garage is going to level the playing field even more. There are also too many drivers in good equipment that are due for their first or next win. On that, let’s talk driver predictions.

Driver Predictions

If I’m comparing to 2022, I should start with the first-time cup series winners, since that year saw five. First up for that is Ty Gibbs, and I think it will come at Michigan. Last season he had eight top five finishes, and in the equipment he is in, it’s only a matter of time. I say Michigan because that is seemingly his best track, based on average finish, that isn’t a road course, and also Toyota typically lights it up during the summer months. Carson Hocevar, Noah Gragson, Todd Gilliland, Ryan Preece, or someone else could potentially score a lucky win, but no one else sticks out in that category quite as much as Ty Gibbs.

For those who aren’t going for their first win, there are many drivers who are due for their next win. To top off that list is Bubba Wallace. After a commanding win in the first Duel race on Thursday, he’s shown that he means business this year. His team has been on a roll recently, with Tyler Reddick making the final four last year, and even though it didn’t come in 2024, he was close to his third victory lane a few times. Stats aside, I also think mentally he is in a much stronger place coming into the year. To many it may not mean much, but to me, his mental game has always been his biggest restrictor. With his newborn son giving new light into his life, and the Duel win starting the year strong, he has some mental weight off of his shoulders making him an even stronger contender in 2025.

Looking at the other Duel winner, I think Austin Cindric is going to have a break out year this year. He is obviously in strong equipment, being teammates with the last two champions, and any Daytona 500 winner is bound to get more wins eventually. Keeping with past Daytona 500 champions, I can see Ricky Stenhouse Jr. getting a superspeedway victory this year. He is always a favorite at those races, and there’s no reason to think he won’t get it done again. For him, and many of the other drivers who live in that one win per year category, the question is always if they can make a playoff run out of it. On that note, let’s talk about road courses.

One of the biggest story lines of the year is with Shane van Gisbergen becoming full-time. I can respect his talent, his Supercars career, and his NASCAR stats so far, but I don’t think he’ll get it done in 2025. The rest of the field is getting better on road courses at an exponential rate, as can be seen in comparing the two Chicago races, and in my opinion, the era of the “Road Course Ringer” is coming to a close. I say that with intention, because it’s still possible for him or AJ Allmendinger to pop off an unexpected win, but I personally don’t see that happening this year. I am almost tempted to say that AJ Allmendinger has a better shot winning on a superspeedway in 2025 than on a road course, more so because I don’t trust the Kaulig equipment.

On the note of equipment, I unfortunately have to say I don’t think Kyle Busch is going to have a good year this year. The RCR equipment has not been to the level to run up front week to week. However, I don’t think he’ll go winless, because he is my pick for the Daytona 500. There are too many similarities between his situation now and Dale Earnhardt’s situation in 1998. Kyle Busch is at his “twenty years of trying, twenty years of frustration,” moment this year, being so close so many times, including the last few years, and I think he gets his only missing crown jewel come Sunday.

To wrap up my driver predictions, I think that Chase Briscoe is going to have a strong year moving over to Joe Gibbs Racing, and in general I think this is the year for Joe Gibbs Racing. Denny Hamlin is a contender every week, but I see Christopher Bell as the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Champion. He is an extremely underrated talent, he has been to the final four multiple times in the Next-Gen era, and with JGR allowing him to dirt race again outside of NASCAR, he is going to be an unstoppable force the same way Kyle Larson was in 2021.

Check Out Last Saturday’s Editorial:
Does The NASCAR Clash Need to Exist?

Track Predictions

I already predicted Kyle Busch to be the Daytona 500 champion, but more importantly I am predicting no rain for the Daytona 500. Is that mostly manifesting? Sure, but I have to try something after the disappointment of last year and the already moved start time. While we’re manifesting, let’s say no rain for the Chicago Street Race as well. I want it bone dry in Grant Park come fourth of July weekend.

Continuing down the schedule from Daytona, I have to say that Atlanta is going to continue to be the most entertaining track on the schedule. There are certainly high expectations after the thrilling three wide finish last year, but that aside, every race here since the repave has been fantastic, and as the surface ages the racing is only going to get better.

On the flip side of that coin, I don’t think the road courses or short tracks are going to improve. The option tires are an interesting development in that area, but I don’t think it will be enough to get it back to the standard NASCAR fans want to see. The sanctioning body continues to seem unwilling to make the substantial changes needed to improve these races, and until that happens, it just seems like this is what the Next-Gen is going to be at these tracks.

I am also looking forward to the race in Mexico, not necessarily because of the race itself, but because of the fans. When the Xfinity Series raced at the venue in the late 2000s, the place was turning upside down with energy, and the Cup Series being there is only going to grow that excitement.

The changes in the playoff tracks is also of note for me. All of these tracks deserve to have playoff races for sure, but the complexion of each round has changed significantly, which is why I don’t see Penske having the same results as the last few years. Different drivers have strengths at these tracks, and I see the Penske championship streak coming to an end in 2025.

Final Predictions

Lastly, I am excited for Amazon Prime and TNT Sports to come into the NASCAR world. I am excited to see NASCAR on Bleacher Report through Warner Brothers and Turner, and Amazon’s work on Thursday Night Football has me eager to see what they are going to bring to the table. I feel the same way about The CW for the Xfinity Series. It’s going to be tough to get used to all these new channels, but that’s a lot of different outlets advertising the sport, and a lot of new minds coming together to raise the broadcasting standards.

There is no doubt in my mind that 2025 is going to be a stellar year for NASCAR, and more importantly, the best year possible to start the NASCAR Rant Report.

My 2025 Playoff Bracket

Just Out: Ross Chastain (#1), Erik Jones (#43), Carson Hocevar (#77), Daniel Suarez (#99)
Eliminated at 16: Kyle Busch (#8), Chris Buescher (#17), Chase Briscoe (#19), Ty Gibbs (#54)
Eliminated at 12: Austin Cindric (#2), Joey Logano (#22), Bubba Wallace (#23), Alex Bowman (#48)
Eliminated at 8: Chase Elliott (#9), Denny Hamlin (#11), Ryan Blaney (#12), Tyler Reddick (#45)
Final Four: Kyle Larson (#5), Brad Keselowski (#6), William Byron (#24)
Champion: Christopher Bell (#20)

Daytona 500 Television Schedule:

TODAY - Saturday, February 15
10 a.m., NASCAR Xfinity Series: Qualifying at Daytona International Speedway, The CW
Noon, ARCA Menards Series: Daytona 200 at Daytona International Speedway, FOX
3 p.m., NASCAR Cup Series: Practice at Daytona International Speedway, FS2
4 p.m., NASCAR Countdown Live, The CW
5 p.m., NASCAR Xfinity Series: 2025 United Rentals 300 at Daytona International Speedway, The CW

Sunday, February 16
11:30 a.m., Countdown to Daytona, FOX
Noon, Countdown to Daytona, FOX
12:30 p.m., NASCAR RaceDay, FOX
2:30 p.m., NASCAR Cup Series: 2025 Daytona 500, FOX